Senate Prospects in 2014

The Democrats picked up 6 seats in 2006, 8 seats in 2008, and 2 seats in 2012. Republicans picked up 6 seats in the Tea Party wave of 2010, but after the two Democratic wave elections of 2006 and 2008, the Democrats retained a majority. The Democratic gains in 2012, made during the re-election of President Obama, were all the more remarkable considering the favorable climate in 2000 and 2006 for Senate Democrats. By consolidating the gains made in 2000 and 2006, the 2012 elections secured a large block of seats for Senate Democrats through 2018. Though the prognosticators are focused on the 2014 midterm elections, where Republicans are again favored to gain seats in the Senate if not an outright majority, in 2016 the Republicans will be exposed during a presidential election year. In 2004 and 2010, Senate Republicans fared very well during the re-election of President George W. Bush and the aforementioned Tea Party wave election in 2010. In 2016, Republicans will be defending more seats than Democrats during a presidential election year. The danger for Republicans is the shifting demographics in America, especially during presidential election years when large numbers of minorities vote. Democrats have won the popular vote in five out of the last six presidential elections, and if the same pattern holds true then Senate Republicans may be very exposed in 2016. Unfortunately for Democrats, 2010 was a U.S. Census year. Despite the fact that the Census was carried out by the administration of Democratic President Barack Obama, the Republican Tea Party wave election in the 2010 midterms swept Republicans to power in the U.S. House of Representatives and the majority of state legislatures and governorships. At the state level, the once-a-decade redistricting called for in the U.S. Constitution was done by Republican-controlled legislatures and passed into law by Republican governors in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida - all of which voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012. As a result of the Republican-led redistricting efforts, all five of the aforementioned states now have a majority of Republican U.S. Representatives in the House.